Economy & Fed · Polymarket · Closes Jan 1, 2027
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 06:20 UTC, traders on Polymarket put 0 (0 bps) at 98%, little changed over 24 hours. $28.4K traded in the last 24 hours; $55.8M in total.
- 0 (0 bps) 98%
- 1 (25 bps) 0.7%
- 2 (50 bps) <1%
- 3 (75 bps) <1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 98% | ±0 |
| 1 (25 bps) | 0.7% | ±0 |
| 2 (50 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 3 (75 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 12+ (300+ bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 5 (125 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 6 (150 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 7 (175 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 8 (200 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 9 (225 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 10 (250 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
| 11 (275 bps) | <1% | ±0 |
View the market on Polymarket ↗
About this market
This market asks how many interest rate cuts the US Federal Reserve will make during 2026. Cuts are counted in steps of 25 basis points, so a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts, while a smaller cut still counts as one. Cuts made at the December meeting are included, and so are emergency cuts made outside scheduled FOMC meetings. The market stays open until the end of December 2026 to capture any such surprise action. It can resolve early to No for a given outcome if more cuts have already happened than that outcome specifies. Resolution relies on FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve's published target rate. Inflation and jobs data, central bank communication, changes in economic growth and financial stress could all influence expectations.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 06:20 UTC), Polymarket traders priced 0 (0 bps) at 98%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market resolve?
The market stays open until the end of December 2026, Eastern Time, so that any emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are counted. It can resolve early to No for an outcome if more cuts have already occurred than that outcome specifies.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the exact number of 25 bps cuts the Fed makes in 2026, based on FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve target rate. A 50 bps cut counts as two cuts, and a smaller cut counts as one.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.