Tech & AI · Polymarket
Which company has the best AI model at the end of 2026? Odds
As of 13.11.2026 00:22 UTC, traders on Polymarket put Google at 72%, down 1 point in 24 hours. $25.1K traded in the last 24 hours; $4.3M in total.
Context
No sourced explanation for this move is available in our recent coverage.
- Google 72%
- Anthropic 20%
- OpenAI 3%
- Meta 1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| 72% | −1 | |
| Anthropic | 21% | −1.5 |
| OpenAI | 3% | +0.5 |
| Meta | 0.8% | ±0 |
| Alibaba | <1% | ±0 |
| xAI | <1% | ±0 |
| DeepSeek | <1% | ±0 |
| Z.ai | <1% | ±0 |
| Moonshot | <1% | ±0 |
| Mistral | <1% | ±0 |
| Meituan | <1% | ±0 |
| Microsoft | <1% | ±0 |
| Amazon | <1% | ±0 |
| Baidu | <1% | ±0 |
| ByteDance | <1% | ±0 |
Per-contract closing dates are not listed for this market; each contract's deadline follows the platform's rules — check the market page. View the market on Polymarket ↗
About this market
This market asks which company will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of 2026. Resolution uses the text leaderboard at lmarena.ai with style control turned off. Models are ordered by their rank at the check time, which is noon Eastern Time on the final day of 2026. If models share a rank, the unrounded Arena score breaks the tie, and if a tie still remains, company names are ordered alphabetically. The company behind the first-place model wins. If the leaderboard is offline at the check time, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first check afterward. Developments that could move the market include new model releases, updates to existing models, changes in how votes are collected or scored, and shifts in the leaderboard rankings over time.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Which company has the best AI model at the end of 2026?”?
At our last update (13.11.2026 00:22 UTC), Polymarket traders priced Google at 72%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna Come.
When does this market resolve?
The leaderboard is checked at noon Eastern Time on the final day of 2026. If the leaderboard is unavailable then, the market stays open and resolves on the first check after it comes back online.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the company that owns the model in first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at lmarena.ai, with style control off. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna Come and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.